Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
840 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Minnesota
Northern and Central Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 840 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms should continue to pose
a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph as it
moves east-southeastward this evening and overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west northwest
of Wausau WI to 40 miles northeast of Manitowoc WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 650...WW 651...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 653 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LM 270140Z - 270900Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
85WNW AUW/WAUSAU WI/ - 40NE MTW/MANITOWOC WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /30NNE EAU - 46E GRB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 46399125 45558711 43528711 44379125
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 653 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 653
VALID 270640Z - 270740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OSH TO
20 ENE OSH TO 15 E GRB TO 40 NNE GRB TO 25 SSE IMT TO 15 NNE IMT.
..BENTLEY..08/27/24
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC029-039-047-061-071-077-117-270740-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOOR FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE
KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE
SHEBOYGAN
$$
LMZ521-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-270740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 653
VALID 270525Z - 270640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VOK TO
35 NW OSH TO 35 E CWA TO 40 SE RHI TO 20 ENE RHI TO 35 NNE RHI TO
35 ESE IWD.
..BENTLEY..08/27/24
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC001-009-015-029-037-039-041-047-061-067-071-075-077-078-083-
087-115-117-135-137-139-270640-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALUMET
DOOR FLORENCE FOND DU LAC
FOREST GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE
LANGLADE MANITOWOC MARINETTE
MARQUETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
OUTAGAMIE SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN
WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
$$
LMZ521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-270640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 653
VALID 270420Z - 270540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW VOK TO
25 WNW CWA TO 30 W RHI TO 20 WSW IWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
..SQUITIERI..08/27/24
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC001-003-009-015-029-037-039-041-047-051-057-061-067-069-071-
073-075-077-078-081-083-085-087-097-115-117-125-135-137-139-141-
270540-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN
CALUMET DOOR FLORENCE
FOND DU LAC FOREST GREEN LAKE
IRON JUNEAU KEWAUNEE
LANGLADE LINCOLN MANITOWOC
MARATHON MARINETTE MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE MONROE OCONTO
ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN VILAS
WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
WOOD
$$
LMZ521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-270540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 653
VALID 270225Z - 270340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
..SQUITIERI..08/27/24
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 653
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC157-270340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WABASHA
$$
WIC001-003-007-009-011-015-019-029-037-039-041-047-051-053-057-
061-067-069-071-073-075-077-078-081-083-085-087-097-099-113-115-
117-119-121-125-129-135-137-139-141-270340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ASHLAND BAYFIELD
BROWN BUFFALO CALUMET
CLARK DOOR FLORENCE
FOND DU LAC FOREST GREEN LAKE
IRON JACKSON JUNEAU
KEWAUNEE LANGLADE LINCOLN
MANITOWOC MARATHON MARINETTE
MARQUETTE MENOMINEE MONROE
OCONTO ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE
PORTAGE PRICE SAWYER
SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN TAYLOR
TREMPEALEAU VILAS WASHBURN
WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
WOOD
$$
LMZ521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-270340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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