SPC AC 021927

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the
   Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the
   lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for
   large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the
   ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen
   Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico.
   Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern
   Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and
   eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
   along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
   Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
   within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
   buoyancy/shear.

   ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel...
   An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East
   Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to
   16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north
   across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing
   across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent
   will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level
   jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of
   the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in
   scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an
   environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast
   soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front
   during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing
   will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the
   front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective
   shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards
   with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the
   front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more
   closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells
   and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at
   this time.

   ...Ohio Valley...
   Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in
   the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours.
   Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing
   convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts
   uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability
   and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat
   for isolated to scattered severe storms. 

   ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas...
   Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from
   northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a
   low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas.
   Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected
   to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern
   Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with
   some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually,
   these storms will likely become surface based given the rich
   moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong
   low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but
   some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a
   greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal
   destabilization.

   ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025

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