SPC AC 030815

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
   THE MID ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few
   tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle
   Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday.

   ...Discussion...
   Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep,
   occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest
   through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period.
    Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to
   impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
   Seaboard.  Models indicate that this may include, south to
   southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening
   warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the
   Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front
   across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes
   vicinity.

   Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may
   become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented
   somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer
   offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard.  Models still indicate
   that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. 
   However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger
   forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for
   severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area.

   ...Southern through Mid Atlantic...
   Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F
   in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day.
   Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across
   parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the
   arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf
   States.  Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to
   be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become
   sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight
   line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs.

   In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing
   dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of
   the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late
   Wednesday afternoon.  It appears that this will be aided by the
   leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of
   the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm
   development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  Although
   forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more
   modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads
   offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells
   with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

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