Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Feb 6, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 6 19:21:48 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250206 1930Z Day 3 shapefile | 20250206 1930Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 061921

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from low probabilities for scattered thunderstorm development
   across parts of the Ohio Valley, the risk for thunderstorms appears
   negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate that mid-level flow will begin to undergo
   amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern
   Pacific into western North America, including building mid-level
   ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and digging
   downstream troughing east of the Canadian Rockies.  Otherwise, it
   appears that there will be little change across much of the
   contiguous U.S., with ridging centered over the subtropical
   latitudes maintaining an influence across much of the southern into
   central tier states.  Within a broadly confluent, zonal regime
   across the northern tier, a couple of embedded short wave
   perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale, but still
   low-amplitude, troughing progressing across the Great Lakes vicinity
   into Northeast by late Saturday night.

   It appears that the evolving mid-level trough may provide support
   for increasingly significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the
   northern Mid Atlantic coast by the end of the period.  This is
   likely to be focused along a tightening baroclinic zone, near the
   eroding southern periphery of a seasonably cold air mass entrenched
   to the east of the Rockies.  Initially stalled across parts of the
   southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic,
   the surface frontal zone is forecast to advance southward into the
   Gulf Coast states Saturday through Saturday night, in the wake of
   the wave.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley...
   Model differences concerning the frontal wave development, and
   potential boundary-layer destabilization, along the eroding shallow
   southern periphery of the cold air across the interior U.S. remains
   problematic concerning convective potential.  Strengthening of
   lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear near the frontal wave
   is likely to become conditionally supportive of severe weather
   potential, given sufficient destabilization.  However, regardless of
   the boundary-layer modification (and the NAM may be too aggressive
   with the lingering shallow sharp surface-based inversion across
   Kentucky, east-northeast of Bowling Green into the Blue Grass by
   late Saturday afternoon), there does appear a general consensus that
   relatively warm, dry air at mid-levels may tend to suppress
   destabilization.  At least some convection, perhaps mostly elevated
   near and north of the Ohio River, may become capable of producing
   lightning.  But the risk for severe weather still appears negligible
   at this time.

   ..Kerr.. 02/06/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 06, 2025
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities