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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
May 26, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 07:30:16 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240526 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240526 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO
   EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
   OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau
   and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of
   the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening,
   accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
   western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and
   slowly progressive into and through this period.  This appears
   likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the
   Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging
   shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern
   U.S. Great Plains.  Downstream troughing, across and east of the
   upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable
   embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper
   Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may
   accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St.
   Lawrence Valley.  This will be accompanied by a weakening surface
   cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the
   Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast.

   Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern
   Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the
   southern mid- into subtropical latitudes.  

   Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of
   shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of
   the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau,
   Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley.  However, there is
   notable spread among the model output concerning this and other
   synoptic/sub-synoptic details.

   ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico...
   It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface
   troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian
   Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong
   thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon.  It is possible that
   this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak
   perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft.  In
   the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level
   moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate
   to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by
   veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to
   the evolution of a few supercells.  It is possible that severe
   probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this
   period.

   ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies...
   Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland
   advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm
   development Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The latest NAM, in
   particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the
   mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative
   cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute
   to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric
   flow and a strengthening cold pool.  It is possible that strong to
   severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide
   Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to
   weaken convection.

   ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 26, 2024
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