SPC AC 031632

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a
   squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central
   Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts,
   and large hail are all possible.

   ...Southern/Central Plains...
   A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet
   will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the
   southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent
   associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee
   cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should
   deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it
   develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps
   east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of
   the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the
   upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will
   continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead
   of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current
   expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based
   thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z.

   Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the
   Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense
   thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into
   south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures
   aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear
   will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with
   an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick
   transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front
   moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north
   TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt
   south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within
   the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming
   sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based
   convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing
   near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the
   strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to
   support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it
   sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end
   of the period (early Tuesday morning).

   Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints
   into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of
   southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some
   guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return
   likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around
   63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of
   western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective
   initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and
   severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this
   region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best
   combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast.

   ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025

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