SPC AC 301958

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

   Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR
   SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight
   from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi
   Valley.

   ...20Z Update...
   The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of
   the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has
   progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s
   amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based
   storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place
   -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For
   additional details, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/

   ...LA/MS...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast
   CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across
   central TX.  A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a
   moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex
   region.  The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and
   thunderstorms along/behind the front.

   Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong
   low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional
   environment for organized convection and updraft rotation.  The
   primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak
   thermodynamic profiles.  These factors suggest storms along the
   immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how
   long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by
   the front.  Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging
   wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening.

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