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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 26, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 06:00:54 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240526 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240526 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
   parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with
   the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes
   are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into
   central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent
   portions of northern Tennessee.

   A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is
   expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected
   from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
   Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible,
   including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to
   scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. 

   A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded
   shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of
   the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone
   initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO
   through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern
   Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move
   southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid
   South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move
   northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the
   effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. 

   ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys...
   The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern
   portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results
   in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe
   potential during the D1/Sunday period. 

   A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later
   this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded
   supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and
   favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential
   for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While
   there may be some weakening trend through the morning,
   reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the
   attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the
   afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode,
   but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an
   increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and
   a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH
   Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley

   Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is
   forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon
   into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low.
   Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant
   outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the
   trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm
   sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated
   outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection,
   and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat
   for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some
   strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification
   can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor
   remains uncertain at this time. 

   Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight
   along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a
   continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few
   tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. 

   ...Northern IL into southeast WI...
   A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop
   this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but
   sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm
   organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally
   strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening.

   ...Eastern KS into western MO...
   Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind
   the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late
   this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO.
   Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be
   possible within this post-frontal regime. 

   ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic...
   There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and
   eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the
   Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While
   the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward
   extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could
   spread into the region later in the day.

   ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024



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