SPC AC 030055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado outbreak is ongoing across parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes,
   along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, remain likely. Additionally,
   tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very
   large hail remain possible across a broad area from north Texas
   northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

   ...01z Update...

   An elongated corridor of severe thunderstorms has evolved from
   southern Arkansas, northeast across the Boot Heel of Missouri into
   northern Indiana. Numerous tornadic supercells are noted along this
   zone, especially across the High Risk area from southern Arkansas
   into southern Illinois. Multiple long-lived tornadoes have likely
   produced significant damage in places, and this threat will continue
   into the late evening/overnight hours.

   Intense LLJ is forecast to translate across the western Tennessee
   Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a
   northeastward shift of organized convection after midnight as the
   primary short-wave trough ejects toward lower Michigan.
   Environmental parameters continue to favor strong tornadoes and
   damaging winds, along with large hail.

   Upstream across Texas, a secondary low-latitude short-wave trough
   will approach far West Texas late in the period. In response to this
   feature, LLJ is forecast to increase across the Edwards Plateau by
   03/06z, and strengthening is expected as the LLJ shifts toward the
   I35 corridor by sunrise. Significant destabilization is expected
   into north-central Texas late as moisture surges north. As a result,
   supercells are expected to develop and spread east-northeast.

   ..Darrow.. 04/03/2025

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