SPC AC 240554

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN 
   LA...MS...AL AND WESTERN FL/GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible today
   from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida
   Panhandle.

   ...Synopsis...
   Amplified mid-level flow will progress across the CONUS as an upper
   trough moves from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and a ridge
   builds steadily over the West. A cold front, trailing from a surface
   low will advance toward the Atlantic and Gulf Coast before stalling
   across south-central TX this afternoon. A band of thunderstorms will
   move southeastward across portions of the Southeast with a risk for
   marginal damaging gusts and hail.

   ...Southern LA, to southwest GA and the western FL Panhandle...
   A band of loosely organized thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
   this morning ahead of the increasingly zonal cold front across parts
   of southern LA, southern GA and the FL Panhandle. Moderate buoyancy
   and modestly strong westerly flow aloft may support a continued
   marginal hail and wind risk as these storms approach the Gulf Coast.
   The most likely area for this appears to be across far southern LA
   and MS. At least a couple hours of filtered diurnal heating is
   possible ahead of the band of storms, along with access to somewhat
   steeper mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) from the west. This could
   support a slight rejuvenation of convection for a few hours, with a
   risk for hail and damaging gusts. However, storms should move
   offshore by early afternoon while the front and the remaining
   unstable air mass stall just inland.

   Farther east into the Carolinas, the late return of the deeper
   surface moisture coupled with increasingly poor mid-level lapse
   rates ahead of the eastward moving cold front suggests buoyancy will
   not be large (< 500 J/kg MUCAPE). A few storms may still redevelop
   along the primary surface front, with potential for isolated gusty
   outflow winds. However, overall severe potential appears quite low
   given increasingly limited buoyancy.

   ...South-central TX...
   As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually lift northward,
   strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very
   isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edwards
   Plateau and south-central TX. Area RAP soundings show steep
   mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which
   could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts.
   However, this appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises
   and little ascent away from the slow moving surface front. As such,
   probabilities will continue to be withheld given the low conditional
   risk.

   ..Lyons/Darrow.. 03/24/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z