SPC AC 270059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

   Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN...NORTHEAST NV INTO WESTERN
   UT...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of
   the Dakotas into northwest Minnesota, Great Basin, and Arizona.

   ...Northern High Plains into eastern ND and northwest MN...
   A few strong storms have developed from eastern ND into northwest
   MN, in the vicinity of a weak cold front. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg
   and effective shear of 30-40 kt could support a supercell or two
   through the evening, with a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts,
   and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1714 for more information. 

   Farther southwest, high-based convection is ongoing across parts of
   the northern High Plains, which could pose a threat of isolated
   strong to severe gusts through the evening. Elevated convection may
   increase later tonight and spread northeastward along/north of the
   cold front from northern SD into eastern ND and northwest MN, which
   could pose a threat of gusty winds and some hail. 

   ...Central into southeast AZ...
   Occasional strong storms have been noted from central into southeast
   AZ through the afternoon, mainly in closer proximity to the higher
   terrain. Multiple areas of outflow are spreading southward, though
   with rather strong MLCINH in place, potential for substantial
   development into the lower elevations is uncertain. Some threat for
   strong to isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out through the
   evening, though confidence is low. 

   ...Great Basin...
   Isolated strong storms remain possible this evening across parts of
   west-central/northwest UT. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and effective
   shear around 30 kt were noted on the 00Z SLC sounding, and briefly
   organized storms could pose a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts
   and small to near-severe hail. Another round of convection is
   possible later tonight from northeast NV into western UT, in advance
   of an approaching shortwave trough. A residual well-mixed boundary
   layer could support locally gusty winds with this later convection.

   ..Dean.. 07/27/2024

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