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< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Nov 3, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 3 17:39:39 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20241103 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20241103 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 031739

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large
   hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from
   the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid
   Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong.

   ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the
   Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward
   through California within the western part of the system. The jet
   max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and
   eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this
   occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest
   Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across
   western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline
   from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and
   move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the
   dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will
   extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and
   Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift
   associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with
   instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms,
   especially during the afternoon and evening.

   Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level
   flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of
   the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe
   storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in
   west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a
   low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains
   during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused,
   and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the
   southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line
   segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas
   into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas.

   A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east
   of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km
   shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250
   to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with
   tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range
   during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for
   strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be
   associated with the more dominant supercells that remain
   semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is
   expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will
   also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will
   become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible
   with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will
   move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated
   dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and
   Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe
   storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated
   with tornadoes and wind damage.

   ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: November 03, 2024
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