SPC AC 021730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
   broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
   to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
   and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado
   threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western
   Tennessee.

   ...Synopsis...
   An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather
   threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing
   convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its
   outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone.
   As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS,
   mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with
   height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will
   intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
   day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe
   storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western
   Tennessee.

   ...West Texas to North Texas...
   Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along
   and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central
   Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear
   (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of
   large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid
   day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and
   southern Oklahoma. 

   Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is
   expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale
   mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse
   likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast
   soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess
   of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the
   synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells
   capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are
   expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and
   Northwest Texas.

   ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee...
   An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be
   located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This
   boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and
   northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening
   low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing
   for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during
   the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme
   instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich
   theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for
   large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can
   remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all
   severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes.
   However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell
   residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward
   recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold
   pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However,
   if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher
   tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. 

   ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic...
   Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe
   weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to
   the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio
   River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist
   airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant
   outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some
   storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots
   of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises
   should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially
   scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado
   threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact
   locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time.

   ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025

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