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May 26, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 06:20:54 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240526 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240526 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260620

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
   NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
   PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH
   CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH
   OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
   EASTERN LOUISIANA...

   CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic 
   and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind
   and hail the primary potential hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across
   the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America
   into and through the Memorial Day Holiday.  This is forecast to
   include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast,
   to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern
   Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S.
   Rockies and Canadian Prairies.

   Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to
   consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the
   mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic
   Seaboard.  One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to
   turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the
   day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. 
   In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will
   become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower
   Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and
   across the Appalachians.

   Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the
   east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent
   and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting
   east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley.

   ...Mid Atlantic..
   Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with
   regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little
   more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated,
   perturbations preceding this wave.  However, a seasonably moist
   boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is
   still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt
   west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern
   Appalachians.  This is expected to contribute to an environment
   potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development,
   including supercell structures.  It still appears possible that
   consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the
   Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east
   of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more
   widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening.

   ...Gulf States...
   Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric
   lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is
   forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg
   by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower
   Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians.  Beneath modest,
   broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous
   thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. 
   The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may
   contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which
   may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe
   surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western
   Georgia, central and southern Mississippi.  It is possible severe
   probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in
   later outlooks, as model spread decreases.

   ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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