SPC AC 301707

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
   SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of
   the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday.

   ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast...

   An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains
   will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer
   southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the
   trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across
   the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated
   thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN
   Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite
   favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a
   relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization.
   Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast,
   some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during
   the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to
   far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any
   stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if
   any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level
   shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears
   to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics.

   ...TN/OH Valley vicinity...

   Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of
   the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel
   temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates,
   contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat
   dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped
   convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small,
   sub-severe hail for a few hours.

   ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025

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