SPC AC 030550

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
   TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
   a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
   tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments
   into and through this period.  However, better consensus is evident
   among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale
   pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. 
   Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the
   Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains
   through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night,
   accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis.  

   Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and
   deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through
   northern Illinois during this period.  In the wake of the cyclone, a
   substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the
   southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower
   Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday.  This may be preceded by a more
   modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the
   outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of
   the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge
   shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying
   large-scale mid/upper troughing.

   A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the
   western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across
   eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting
   eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley.  In
   response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models
   suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will
   probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late
   Tuesday night.

   Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially
   extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through
   southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture
   return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable
   surface-based layer.  However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output
   still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while
   developing eastward through the day.

   Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated
   and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale
   ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to
   support extensive convective development across the interior U.S.
   Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least
   a conditional risk for severe storms.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
   The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone
   across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary
   initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this
   period.  As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the
   southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it
   contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave
   perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions
   may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm
   cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells.

   Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may
   include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer
   on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi
   during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for
   supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes.  With the
   strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the
   convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential
   remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster
   developing along/above a maturing cold pool

   Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface
   thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the
   large-scale forcing.  Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
   soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating
   factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential,
   particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
   eastern Gulf Coast states.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

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