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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 6, 2025
Updated: Thu Feb 6 09:58:02 UTC 2025
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sun, Feb 09, 2025 - Mon, Feb 10, 2025 D7Wed, Feb 12, 2025 - Thu, Feb 13, 2025
D5Mon, Feb 10, 2025 - Tue, Feb 11, 2025 D8Thu, Feb 13, 2025 - Fri, Feb 14, 2025
D6Tue, Feb 11, 2025 - Wed, Feb 12, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060956
   SPC AC 060956

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently --
   and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to
   gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across
   the U.S. through the period.  The initial effect of this gradual
   upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the
   persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward.
   Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward
   through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina.  Severe
   weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and  settles
   across this area.

   Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward),
   disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly
   cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave
   development along the front.  Any appreciable cyclogenesis could
   result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus
   some destabilization ahead of the low.  With strong flow aloft atop
   the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would
   support severe-weather potential.

   With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather
   probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during
   the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high.  Timing and
   degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and
   their effects on surface mass response.  And given predictability
   issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features,
   it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the
   day 7 to 8 time frame.

   ..Goss.. 02/06/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 06, 2025
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