(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260840
SPC AC 260840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be centered over the central
CONUS on Monday and is forecast to slowly amplify through the week.
As this occurs, northwest flow will strengthen from the northern
Plains to the western Great Lakes and Midwest with high quality
moisture in place. Severe weather may be possible during this period
(most likely D5/Tue to D7/Thu). Most guidance shows convective
precipitation signals and likely MCSs each afternoon, but based on
the timing and amplitude of shortwave trough passages within the
northwesterly flow, the uncertainty in location remains too high at
this time to introduce probabilities.
Farther east, an unusual progression of the upper-air pattern
appears increasingly likely with a developing upper low over the
Gulf Stream retrograding into New England on Monday and Tuesday.
This general progression has been supported by the last several runs
of the GFS and ECMWF and an even farther west shift occurred with
the 00z ECMWF and EC ensemble which would bring an even larger warm
sector onshore. This will need to monitored for the potential for at
least some severe weather activity.
..Bentley.. 07/26/2024
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