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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 26, 2024
Updated: Sun May 26 08:51:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Wed, May 29, 2024 - Thu, May 30, 2024 D7Sat, Jun 01, 2024 - Sun, Jun 02, 2024
D5Thu, May 30, 2024 - Fri, May 31, 2024 D8Sun, Jun 02, 2024 - Mon, Jun 03, 2024
D6Fri, May 31, 2024 - Sat, Jun 01, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 260849
   SPC AC 260849

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

   In general, medium-range models indicate that larger-scale mid/upper
   troughing will slowly progress eastward across and offshore of the
   Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter portion of the coming
   work week.  As this occurs, flow across the northern mid-latitudes
   of the Pacific into North America may trend less amplified, while
   flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes trends a bit
   more amplified.  It appears that this may include modest mid-level
   troughing approaching the California and Baja coast next weekend,
   upstream of building large-scale ridging across the southern Rockies
   through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley.  Shorter wavelength
   developments are substantially more unclear throughout the period
   due to sizable model spread.

   Beneath this regime, moderate to strong potential instability,
   associated with seasonably moist boundary-layer air beneath steep
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, may mostly remain confined to
   the higher plains to the lee of the Front Range southward into the
   Pecos Valley.  As mid-level heights fall to the south of the
   initially prominent trough slowly progressing to the east of the
   northern Rockies late this week, it is possible that storms
   developing in the late afternoons off the higher terrain could
   evolve into clusters posing at least some severe weather threat
   across the adjacent plains.  However, due to generally low
   predictability, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at
   less than 15 percent.

   ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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