Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across the watch
area through early evening, posing a risk for strong/damaging wind
gusts and isolated instances of large hail. A tornado or two will
also be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Bad
Axe MI to 20 miles west southwest of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Bunting
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across the watch
area through early evening, posing a risk for strong/damaging wind
gusts and isolated instances of large hail. A tornado or two will
also be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Bad
Axe MI to 20 miles west southwest of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Bunting
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 665 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH 302045Z - 310100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NW BAX/BAD AXE MI/ - 20WSW ARB/ANN ARBOR MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /22S ASP - 34W DXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 44088221 42108294 42108528 44088463
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 665 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 665
VALID 302350Z - 310040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W TOL TO
ARB TO 15 E FNT TO 10 S OSC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
..MOORE..08/30/24
ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC063-087-091-099-115-125-147-151-157-163-310040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HURON LAPEER LENAWEE
MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND
ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA
WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-310040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 665
VALID 302255Z - 302340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBN
TO 15 NNE JXN TO 15 WNW FNT TO 20 WSW OSC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
..MOORE..08/30/24
ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC023-049-059-063-075-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-157-161-
163-302340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH GENESEE HILLSDALE
HURON JACKSON LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR
SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
302340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 665
VALID 302150Z - 302240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE GRR TO
20 NNE LAN TO 30 E HTL.
..MOORE..08/30/24
ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC011-017-023-025-045-049-059-063-065-075-087-091-093-099-115-
125-145-147-151-155-157-161-163-302240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARENAC BAY BRANCH
CALHOUN EATON GENESEE
HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM
JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
302240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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