Mesoscale Discussion 2038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665...

   Valid 302251Z - 310045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail should persist for the
   next 2 to 2.5 hours across southeastern Lower Michigan. The greatest
   severe wind risk may reside along and north of I-65 during this
   period.

   DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along a cold front
   across lower MI. Overall intensification has been somewhat gradual,
   likely owing to somewhat meager large-scale ascent over the region.
   However, KDTX VWP observations have shown a slight strengthening of
   mid-level flow over the past 30-60 minutes with 0-6 km bulk shear
   values increasing closer to 30 knots at times. Additionally, GOES
   1-minute imagery shows several strong updraft pulses along the line,
   indicating that the potential for organized convection persists.
   Confidence in the coverage of robust convection remains limited
   given the aforementioned weak forcing for ascent and recent
   convective trends, but a few severe storms with an attendant
   hail/severe wind risk remain possible as the cold front continues to
   push east (especially along and north of I-65 where convection is
   comparatively more intense based on IR and lightning trends). Latest
   timing guidance suggests that this activity should exit southeastern
   lower MI within the next 2-3 hours.

   ..Moore.. 08/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41898480 42888362 43798304 44058279 44018259 43488235
               42998239 42628252 42338274 42068302 41888326 41788357
               41738396 41798454 41808474 41898480