Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
27,487
69,870
Las Vegas, NM...Raton, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 171706
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of
eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento
Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail,
locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
...Southwest into the Southern High Plains...
An upper low will develop within the base of a western trough on
Friday. This system will progress across the Southwest toward the
Four Corners/southern Rockies vicinity by Saturday morning. As this
occurs, moderate mid/upper south/southwesterly flow (40-60 kt at 500
mb) will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
At the surface, modest boundary layer moisture will spread across
southern AZ on southerly low-level flow ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates
within the developing mid/upper low may provide weak elevated
instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible.
Further east, southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest
Gulf moisture northwest across western Texas into eastern New Mexico
along a surface trough/dryline. As the upper low/trough approaches
during the afternoon into the evening, steepening midlevel lapse
rates and surface dewpoints in the mid 50s F will support up to 1000
J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles with around 40 kt
effective shear magnitudes suggest isolated supercells will be
possible with initial convection during the evening. More linear
development may occur with time (toward 06z) as stronger large-scale
ascent overspreads the region. Strong gusts, marginal hail and a
tornado or two will be possible with this activity.
..Leitman.. 10/17/2024
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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