Mesoscale Discussion 2008
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0928 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast SD...northern
   NE...northwest IA...southwest MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650...

   Valid 270228Z - 270400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat may continue into late tonight. New
   watch issuance is possible prior to 11 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a long-lived QLCS has weakened
   across central SD, within a relatively cool/stable environment. A
   supercell has persisted along the southern flank of this system, and
   produced occasional severe wind/hail reports. Evolution of this
   system is uncertain with time, given that it has generally become
   less organized, but will also eventually move into an increasingly
   moist/unstable environment from northeast NE into southeast SD. Some
   intensification may occur with this system later tonight, with
   additional development possible farther southwest into
   northwest/north-central NE, where stronger ascent will impinge upon
   the region as a shortwave trough moves across the northern High
   Plains. Late-night storm development will also be possible near the
   deeper frontal zone and instability gradient from eastern SD into
   southwest MN. 

   While details remain uncertain, moderate to strong buoyancy and
   40-50 kt of effective shear will continue to support organized
   convection into late tonight, with a threat of strong/severe gusts
   and hail. New watch issuance is possible prior to 11 PM CDT in order
   to address the late-night severe threat.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43090232 43939951 44749737 45429608 45299512 44719443
               44069427 43619416 43049436 42549509 41629831 41740151
               42170184 43090232