Mesoscale Discussion 2004
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651...

   Valid 262344Z - 270115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 651. A bow echo MCS may develop soon and produce a focused
   corridor of severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple HP supercells have merged over the past hour
   into an MCS, with KMPX radar data showing more low-level outflow
   along the leading edge of these storms. Both KMPX and MRMS mosaic
   radar imagery show some bowing structure to this MCS, with
   cross-sections of KMPX velocity data showing a possible rear-inflow
   jet becoming established in the MCS's trailing precipitation region.
   This MCS is poised to track eastward along a buoyancy gradient
   delineating a modestly vs. extremely unstable environment. Low-level
   shear is weak to modest at best ahead of this MCS, so it is unclear
   if an intense bow echo can become established. Nonetheless, given
   extreme buoyancy, at least some bow echo organization is likely over
   the next couple of hours, accompanied by a severe gust threat. A
   focused corridor of damaging winds cannot be ruled out, and a couple
   of the stronger gusts may reach or exceed 75 mph.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44079473 44699396 45429316 45529242 45239186 44799174
               44379222 44089281 43909337 43889435 44079473