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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 2, 2024
Updated: Sat Nov 2 20:29:02 UTC 2024  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Nov 04, 2024 - Tue, Nov 05, 2024 D6Thu, Nov 07, 2024 - Fri, Nov 08, 2024
D4Tue, Nov 05, 2024 - Wed, Nov 06, 2024 D7Fri, Nov 08, 2024 - Sat, Nov 09, 2024
D5Wed, Nov 06, 2024 - Thu, Nov 07, 2024 D8Sat, Nov 09, 2024 - Sun, Nov 10, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022025

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the
   Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi
   Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong
   mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting
   southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day
   6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and
   strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather
   concerns across portions of California. 

   Day 3/Monday: Southern California
   Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are
   forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone
   mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight
   RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire
   weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon
   before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower.  

   Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: 
   Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration
   fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of
   California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level
   trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur
   across portions of northern California, though continued
   uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness
   after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes
   introducing Critical probabilities at this time. 

   Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further
   south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty
   winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from
   little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40%
   probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained
   on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were
   introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley
   areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the
   outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance
   continues to come into better agreement.

   ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: November 02, 2024
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