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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 22, 2024
Updated: Mon Jul 22 21:39:02 UTC 2024  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Jul 24, 2024 - Thu, Jul 25, 2024 D6Sat, Jul 27, 2024 - Sun, Jul 28, 2024
D4Thu, Jul 25, 2024 - Fri, Jul 26, 2024 D7Sun, Jul 28, 2024 - Mon, Jul 29, 2024
D5Fri, Jul 26, 2024 - Sat, Jul 27, 2024 D8Mon, Jul 29, 2024 - Tue, Jul 30, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222135

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will begin to break
   down as a mid-level trough enters the Pacific Northwest on D3/Wed
   and moves through the northern Rockies by D5/Fri. Another weak
   trough will likely develop in its wake before transitioning to a
   zonal mid-level flow pattern by early next week. At the surface,
   hot/dry conditions will persist in most areas of the West, with
   breezy conditions accompanying the passage of cold front across the
   northern Rockies. Otherwise, weak surface winds can be expected for
   most areas of the West into early next week.

   ...Wind/RH Concerns...
   Potential for at least elevated fire-weather conditions continues to
   be expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern
   Rockies on D3/Wed through D5/Fri, as the mid-level trough traverses
   this region. Guidance remains consistent with highlighting the areas
   east of the Cascades on D3/Wed and D4/Thu, and minor expansions were
   made to the probabilities in this region. D4/Thu continues to show
   potential for critical fire-weather conditions, though spread among
   medium-range guidance precludes inclusion of 70% probabilities at
   this time.

   Diurnally driven downslope winds and low RH will likely emerge each
   day across portions of northern Montana, from D3/Wed through D5/Fri.
   40% probabilities have been maintained or introduced to encompass
   this threat.

   Pre-frontal southerly winds and low RH may allow for briefly
   elevated conditions across parts of eastern Wyoming and western
   South Dakota on D4/Thu, but for now probabilities have not been
   introduced.

   ...Dry Lightning...
   The recent surge of sub-tropical moisture into the Pacific Northwest
   will continue to result in daily chances for thunderstorms and dry
   lightning potential. Areas on D3/Wed and D4/Thu have been expanded
   based on the latest guidance. Potential for scattered dry
   thunderstorms will exist on D3/Wed across portions of eastern Oregon
   as the trough enters the region, providing broad forcing for ascent
   and stronger deep-layer flow promoting faster storm motions and more
   organized storm structures. Confidence in this scenario remains a
   bit uncertain, but an upgrade may need to be considered in future
   outlooks.

   For D6/Sat and beyond, chances for dry thunderstorms will likely
   reemerge, though predictability of such features/areas is too low to
   introduce any probabilities.

   ..Karstens.. 07/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: July 22, 2024
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