Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Western South Dakota
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across southeast Montana and
western South Dakota through the afternoon and evening. The
strongest cells may produce damaging winds and large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 145 miles west
northwest of Broadus MT to 25 miles north northeast of Philip SD.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 642 SEVERE TSTM MT SD 212100Z - 220400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
145WNW 4BQ/BROADUS MT/ - 25NNE PHP/PHILIP SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /29NE BIL - 44SSE DPR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 47000820 45180141 43590141 45400820
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 642 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 642
VALID 220300Z - 220440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PHP
TO 35 ESE 2WX TO 25 N 4BQ TO 5 N MLS.
..GOSS..08/22/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-220440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
$$
SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-137-220440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS
TODD ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 642
VALID 220140Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S RAP TO
40 SSE 2WX TO 20 NE GCC.
..GOSS..08/22/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
TREASURE
$$
SDC007-055-063-071-093-095-102-103-105-121-137-220240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS
TODD ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 642
VALID 220050Z - 220140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..08/22/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
TREASURE
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-137-
220140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 642
VALID 212300Z - 220040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..08/21/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
TREASURE
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-137-
220040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.