Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-central to north-central Arkansas
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 900 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A complex of severe thunderstorms -- with a history of
severe as recently as a 56-kt gust at NW AR Regional (XNA) at 141Z
-- is expected to pose a continuing severe-wind and hail threat
southeastward into more of AR this evening. Some expansion or shift
in motion toward southward also is possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Fort
Smith AR to 55 miles northeast of Russellville AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 628...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
32035.
...Edwards
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 629 SEVERE TSTM AR 170200Z - 170700Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10S FSM/FORT SMITH AR/ - 55NE RUE/RUSSELLVILLE AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /13SSW FSM - 69N LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32035.
LAT...LON 35759437 36399240 35239240 34619437
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 629 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
