Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 030055
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is ongoing across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes,
along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, remain likely. Additionally,
tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very
large hail remain possible across a broad area from north Texas
northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.
...01z Update...
An elongated corridor of severe thunderstorms has evolved from
southern Arkansas, northeast across the Boot Heel of Missouri into
northern Indiana. Numerous tornadic supercells are noted along this
zone, especially across the High Risk area from southern Arkansas
into southern Illinois. Multiple long-lived tornadoes have likely
produced significant damage in places, and this threat will continue
into the late evening/overnight hours.
Intense LLJ is forecast to translate across the western Tennessee
Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a
northeastward shift of organized convection after midnight as the
primary short-wave trough ejects toward lower Michigan.
Environmental parameters continue to favor strong tornadoes and
damaging winds, along with large hail.
Upstream across Texas, a secondary low-latitude short-wave trough
will approach far West Texas late in the period. In response to this
feature, LLJ is forecast to increase across the Edwards Plateau by
03/06z, and strengthening is expected as the LLJ shifts toward the
I35 corridor by sunrise. Significant destabilization is expected
into north-central Texas late as moisture surges north. As a result,
supercells are expected to develop and spread east-northeast.
..Darrow.. 04/03/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
