Mesoscale Discussion 0181
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0847 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Areas affected...east-central Missouri and into adjacent western
   Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

   Valid 150147Z - 150315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat is forecast to spread into the greater St.
   Louis area over the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows dewpoints now into the
   mid 50s west of the Mississippi River, southwest of the St. Louis
   Metro area.  This has supported a northward expansion of the axis of
   greatest mixed-layer CAPE, per recent RAP-based mesoanalysis, with
   near 1000 J/kg now as far north as St. Louis, and 2000 J/kg to near
   FAM (Farmington, MO).  In response, several supercell storms have
   organized within the main convective band, and are moving
   northeastward at 45 kt.  At this time, one storm in particular,
   moving across Franklin County, is showing very strong low-level
   rotation, with hints of a corresponding minimum in correlation
   coefficient that would suggest an ongoing tornado.  As such, given
   the background thermodynamic and kinematic environment, potential
   for a significant tornado appears to exist.  This storm will
   continue to track northeastward toward the St. Louis area,
   potentially resulting in a particularly dangerous situation.

   ..Goss.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37649186 38279130 38769120 39349015 39358966 38338975
               37869079 37649186