Mesoscale Discussion 0125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

   Areas affected...portions of western and central OK into western
   North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 040155Z - 040330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to rapidly
   increase by 04z. All severe hazards, including damaging winds, a few
   tornadoes and large hail are possible late this evening into the
   overnight hours. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 03z.

   DISCUSSION...Warm advection continues across OK/TX on strengthening
   low-level south/southeasterly flow. Mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints
   are now evident in surface observations with destabilization
   underway across western OK/northwest TX. The 00z RAOB from FWD
   indicated a fairly deep boundary layer with a 64 F dewpoint, while
   OUN showed more marginal moisture, but still a saturated boundary
   layer to just below 850 mb. Atop the relatively cool but moist
   boundary layer, capping will likely persist until a cold front and
   strong large-scale ascent impinges on the region. Forecast soundings
   suggest convection developing rapidly along the eastward-advancing
   cold front will struggle to become fully surface-based given
   somewhat marginal boundary layer dewpoints. However, strong forcing
   and continued warm advection may be sufficient for sporadic
   surface-based storms, especially near/south of the Red River. If
   this occurs, intense low-level shear and favorable hodographs
   already evident in regional VWP data, suggest some tornado potential
   is likely both with the developing QLCS and any line-embedded
   supercells. 

   In addition to tornado potential, steep midlevel lapse rates and
   cooling aloft, coupled with elongated hodographs above 2-3 km
   indicated large hail will be possible. This will be most likely
   early in convective evolution or with any semi-discrete cells that
   can be maintained. Furthermore, given strength of deep-layer flow
   and a somewhat fast-moving line of storms, damaging winds also will
   be likely. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour or
   so.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   35059981 36989948 36979659 35049677 32599753 32629844
               32719999 33379997 35059981