Mesoscale Discussion 0058
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

   Areas affected...south central into north central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300842Z - 301145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...In advance of an evolving line of storms along a cold
   front progressing across and east of the I-35 corridor of central
   Texas, isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms may
   develop through 4-6 AM CST.  These may pose potential for producing
   small hail and a localized damaging gust or two.  A brief tornado
   might not be out of the question.

   DISCUSSION...A warm elevated mixed-layer across and northeast of the
   San Antonio/Austin area has been suppressing convective development
   within a moist boundary-layer which has advected inland as far
   northwest as the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas.  Beneath
   the steeper mid-level lapse rates, forecast soundings indicate a
   deep moist surface-based layer (including surface dew points in the
   lower/mid 60s F), though one characterized by weak (generally moist
   adiabatic) lapse rates.  Still, this is contributing to weak
   potential instability, in advance of what the latest Rapid Refresh
   indicates will become a strengthening, eastward advancing cold
   frontal surge across the Interstate 35 corridor by 10-12Z.

   It appears that strengthening low-level convergence and frontal
   forcing may contribute to an intensifying band of convection, aided
   by lift along and to the cool side (above) of the the surface front.
    This may coincide with an intensification of southerly pre-frontal
   low-level flow (including to 50+ kt around 850 mb).  However, it
   appears that the strengthening flow will remain largely confined to
   the inflow layer, with forecast soundings indicating generally
   modest to weak westerly flow in the convective outflow and/or
   post-frontal environment.  

   Of primary concern, their may be a window of opportunity for
   intensifying isolated to widely scattered discrete convective
   development, rooted closer to the surface, along the strengthening
   southerly 850 mb jet axis, where somewhat enlarged, clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs may evolve.  This could support supercells with
   at least some potential for localized damaging surface gusts, or
   perhaps a brief tornado, before being overtaken by the frontal band
   of thunderstorms.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 01/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30609867 31779769 32669699 32689553 31499616 29539711
               29289812 29539878 30609867