Mesoscale Discussion 2146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132058Z - 132300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible into early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Despite relatively limited low-level moisture (with
   dewpoints in the mid 50s F), modest diurnal heating has resulted in
   some destabilization this afternoon across parts of western/central
   PA,  to the south of a differential heating zone/effective warm
   front across northern PA. Some deepening cumulus has been noted from
   extreme eastern OH into western PA, in the vicinity of a weak
   surface trough/confluence zone. A few developing showers in this
   region may mature into thunderstorms, as they move eastward and
   downstream MLCAPE increases to near 500 J/kg. 

   Deep-layer flow is rather strong across the region, with 30-50 kt in
   the 850-700 mb layer, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Despite the
   limited instability, this kinematic environment could support some
   storm organization if convection deepens, especially with any storms
   in the vicinity of the differential heating zone. Locally
   gusty/damaging winds and small hail could accompany any stronger
   cells/clusters within this regime.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 10/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41317950 41617849 41607750 41407700 41237700 40987721
               40627754 40477787 40347955 40677959 41317950