Mesoscale Discussion 2147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

   Areas affected...northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182046Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginally severe hail later this
   afternoon from northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from east-central
   CO into northern NM, with low pressure developing ahead of it from
   northwest NM into southeast CO. Gusty southerly winds are aiding
   moisture advection into the region with lower 50s F dewpoints.
   Visible imagery shows clearing east of a dryline and south of the
   cold front, where MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg has developed.

   Continued heating should result in scattered storms developing over
   eastern NM, with meridional flow resulting in northeastward storm
   motions. Veering and increasing winds with height is resulting in
   elongated hodographs with around 40 kt effective shear. Lapse rates
   are not particularly steep today, but sufficient moisture and
   instability combined with favorable shear should yield a few
   supercells with a hail threat.

   ..Jewell.. 10/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34210505 35180507 36050512 36800483 37470452 37570401
               37390355 36910319 36170315 34690311 34130319 33920427
               33950484 34040495 34210505