Mesoscale Discussion 2145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Lake Michigan into southern lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122052Z - 122215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail cannot be ruled out into early evening as
   storms move eastward.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified over
   southern Lake Michigan, after earlier producing small hail over
   southeast WI. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will allow a
   plume of MUCAPE to expand east-northeastward through the remainder
   of the afternoon, with MUCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000
   J/kg range. While this magnitude of MUCAPE is not overly supportive
   of large hail, sufficient effective shear will continue to support
   storm organization, with small to briefly severe hail and locally
   gusty winds possible as storms continue to move eastward into early
   evening.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 10/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42938699 42928589 42868511 42768475 42398464 42058484
               41898512 41878580 41938623 42008666 42168706 42268714
               42938699