Mesoscale Discussion 2029
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of western into central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291740Z - 291945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage and intensity will increase this afternoon
   in western/central Minnesota. Some initial storms will be
   supercellular and be capable of large hail and damaging winds.
   Somewhat rapid upscale growth is expected which will transition the
   primary threat to damaging winds later this afternoon. A watch is
   likely in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/mosaic radar imagery shows a steady
   increase in convection along/ahead of a cold front near the western
   Minnesota border. As temperatures continue to warm into the low/mid
   80s in west-central/southwest Minnesota, MLCIN will continue to
   erode and convection should intensify with time and likely expand in
   coverage as well. Damaging winds will be possible as will large
   hail. The large hail potential may be maximized farther north where
   shear is stronger and the mode may remain discrete longer. Though
   the tornado risk will not be zero, the stronger 850 mb winds are
   expected to translate eastward with time and the larger low-level
   SRH should reside closer to the slowly lifting warm front within the
   Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat is expected to be greater
   farther east. The main uncertainty is how long a discrete mode will
   be maintained (most guidance shows relatively quick upscale growth
   along the front) and when storms will become severe. The current
   thinking is that a watch will be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43909606 47139599 47659547 47529493 46469442 44129441
               43569496 43639590 43909606