Mesoscale Discussion 2027
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

   Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290547Z - 290715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few supercells across central North Dakota are expected
   to persist into eastern North Dakota early this morning with a
   threat or isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite shows a decaying MCS across
   southeast North Dakota as this cluster moves east of the better
   instability. Across western and central North Dakota, a significant
   increase in convection has occurred during the last hour within the
   post-frontal airmass due to a combination of strengthening
   isentropic ascent and DCVA ahead of the approaching mid-level
   trough. Between this post-frontal convection and the decaying MCS a
   locally favorable environment exists. MUCAPE around 2000 to 3000
   J/kg on the apex of a strengthening low-level jet and strong shear
   (50-60 knots per BIS VWP) will support strong to severe supercells.
   While this environment will be quite favorable for the next 1 to 2
   hours, expect storms to quickly outpace this better environment and
   thus weaken across eastern/northeast North Dakota. Due to the
   limited temporal nature of the threat, no severe thunderstorm watch
   is justified.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46279930 46950013 47950026 48579988 48869896 48729772
               47839716 46819762 46319806 46279930