Mesoscale Discussion 1963
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201921Z - 202115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and strong to severe gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is increasing across southeastern
   Colorado and northern New Mexico. Temperatures in this region have
   warmed into the upper 80s to 90s with dew points in the upper 40s to
   50s along the higher terrain, increasing to the mid 60s across the
   lower plains. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large dew point
   depressions may support a few instances of strong to severe wind
   with any stronger cores. Across southeastern Colorado, a MLCAPE
   gradient of 1000-2500 J/kg will support a few instances of hail and
   gusty winds. Given lack of deep layer shear for organization and
   strong ridging aloft, this threat should remain localized and a
   watch is not likely to be needed.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37050196 36310308 36170510 37430611 38630580 39350385
               39340303 38600219 38240200 37050196