Mesoscale Discussion 1954
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0958 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Arkansas into northern
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

   Valid 190258Z - 190430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized line of convection, though becoming
   increasingly elevated, will produce occasional wind damage in
   southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A downstream watch is not
   anticipate tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Cold cloud tops are evident on IR satellite imagery in
   central Arkansas. Convection has maintained some intensity despite
   moving into outflow from earlier convection. The observed Little
   Rock 00Z sounding showed stable low-level conditions, but steep
   lapse rates aloft and ample elevated buoyancy. Farther south, when
   modifying the observed 00Z Shreveport sounding, MLCIN has been
   increasing with time. Given the organization of the line and the
   elevated buoyancy in the region, a few downdrafts may be able to
   overcome low-level inhibition and produce isolated wind damage
   tonight.  Overall convective/observational trends suggest that a new
   watch into parts of northern Louisiana is not likely.

   ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34189441 34339371 34629220 34549168 33359183 32349231
               32279347 32899437 34189441