Mesoscale Discussion 1892
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern Montana....western
   Wyoming...eastern Idaho and northern Utah

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131850Z - 132115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered stronger storms will probably continue to
   develop and intensify through 3-4 PM MDT, with at least a couple
   becoming severe and posing a risk for large hail and locally
   damaging wind gusts.  Due to the relatively isolated nature of the
   severe threat, a severe weather watch appears unlikely, but trends
   will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitable water in excess of 1 inch is advecting
   northward in a narrow plume, near and to the west of the Wasatch
   toward the mountains of southwestern Montana.  This is occurring in
   advance of a mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation now
   progressing east-northeastward across the northern Intermountain
   Region, and contributing to modest destabilization with daytime
   heating.  Mixed-layer CAPE is now in excess of 1000 J/kg, with
   large-scale forcing for ascent contributing to weakening inhibition
   and increasing scattered thunderstorm development.

   Into and through 21-23Z, a gradual further intensification of storms
   appears likely, aided by increasingly unstable low-level
   storm-relative inflow, in the presence of strengthening westerly
   mid/upper wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 500-300 mb layer. 
   The evolution of widely scattered supercells is possible,
   accompanied by a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface
   gusts.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 08/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   41391352 42421292 43221291 43761314 44321324 44751313
               45681217 46021090 45590996 44280975 41801078 40851160
               40691295 41391352