Mesoscale Discussion 1885
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

   Areas affected...southern portions of the southern Great Salt Lake
   Desert into Greater Salt Lake City vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121847Z - 122045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development may continue to increase, with
   some consolidation possible, across southern portions of the Great
   Lake Lake Desert into southern Salt Lake City vicinity through 3-4
   PM MDT.  This activity may be accompanied by small hail and a few
   strong to severe surface gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A moist boundary layer, including surface dew points in
   the mid 50s F, has become moderately unstable with CAPE increasing
   in excess of 1000 J/kg with daytime heating.  This has already
   supported the initiation of a number of thunderstorms, perhaps aided
   by forcing for ascent associated with a weak short wave impulse,
   preceding a notable mid-level trough progressing inland across
   northern and central California through late afternoon.

   Daytime heating has already contributed to a mixed boundary layer
   characterized by temperature/dew point spreads up to around 30 F,
   but this may not increase much further, as convection becomes
   increasingly widespread through 21-22Z.  Despite the somewhat modest
   depth of the boundary layer, shear beneath 30-50 kt
   west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer may contribute to
   small to perhaps marginally severe hail in stronger storms.  And
   melting/sub-cloud evaporative cooling might still contribute to
   outflow with strong to locally severe surface gusts reaching the
   surface, aided by modest east-northeasterly storm motions within
   25-30 kt cloud-bearing layer mean flow.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 08/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...

   LAT...LON   40211407 41041198 40241180 39791231 39141442 40211407