Mesoscale Discussion 1881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of UT into western CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112046Z - 112245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail are possible
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of UT
   into western CO this afternoon. Strong heating of a relatively moist
   environment has resulted in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE
   increasing above 500 J/kg in some areas. This region is on the
   southern periphery of modest midlevel west-northwesterlies
   associated with a shortwave trough moving across the northern
   Rockies/High Plains. Effective shear of 20-30 kt could support at
   least transient storm organization through the afternoon. While some
   hail cannot be ruled out, isolated severe gusts will likely become
   the primary threat with time, as outflows grow and intensify within
   the well-mixed environment.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 08/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   39221384 39911330 40020948 39990747 38890739 37600802
               37460952 37311366 37821377 39221384