Mesoscale Discussion 1851
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

   Areas affected...northwestern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070025Z - 070230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal risk of hail and damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms is advancing southward
   out of Canada.  This line is expected to continue into northwestern
   North Dakota, with potential for further development ahead of this
   line. Storms will continue southward into an environment
   characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer shear
   50-55 kts. This will support a few organized cells capable of large
   hail (isolated up to 2 in) and damaging wind. MLCIN remains in place
   across much of central North Dakota, which may limit the severe
   potential with south and southeast extent. Due to the localized
   nature of this threat, a watch is unlikely to be needed.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48730347 48970320 49000231 48960128 48980002 48500009
               47910003 47720176 47650307 47660348 47920389 48380381
               48530368 48730347