Mesoscale Discussion 1816
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

   Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula and far southern
   Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 594...

   Valid 042053Z - 042300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 594 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado risk continues across FL and far southern GA.
   The greatest risk should gradually drift north toward the FL/GA
   border later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, convection associated with the outer
   bands of TS Debby continues to move across the central and northern
   FL Peninsula. Periodic updraft rotation has been noted with some of
   the stronger cells over the last several hours. However, the
   expanding CDO noted with Debby's outflow has gradually expanded
   inland, limiting diurnal heating. MLCAPE has started to decrease
   below 1000 J/kg reducing overall convective intensity of the
   observed bands. That, in combination with a more linear dominant
   storm mode, has stifled tornado potential somewhat so far this
   afternoon. Still, as Debby continues to deepen, already strong
   low-level shear (TBW VAD 600+ m2/s2 ESRH) should continue to
   intensify and shift northeast of the center. This will support
   low-level updraft rotation and the potential for a few tornadoes
   with any sustained convection.

   ..Lyons.. 08/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30498442 30838423 30908291 30798195 30068151 29288112
               28288076 27408059 26758085 26358123 26298147 26328179
               26488223 26968245 27848283 28708261 29128294 29648357
               29908419 30498442