Mesoscale Discussion 1719
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern Colorado into adjacent portions of
   western and central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281924Z - 282030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm development is expected in
   the northeastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle
   vicinity in the next hour, and then shifting/intensifying eastward
   with time.  Storms should remain isolated, but increasing risk for
   severe-caliber wind gusts and/or hail may eventually warrant WW
   consideration.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows TCU development
   from southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado into
   southwestern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle.  CB/storm
   development is expected within the hour across this area, as the
   boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize.  

   As the convection spreads eastward with time, it will encounter a
   somewhat more unstable environment across southwestern Nebraska and
   adjacent northwestern Kansas, resulting in gradual intensification
   of the convection.

   With that said, storms are likely to remain isolated, given the
   relatively dry airmass aloft (reflected by low PW values only around
   one inch).  This, combined with generally modest shear, suggests
   that overall severe potential will likely remain somewhat
   limited/localized.  Still, any stronger/sustained updraft will be
   capable of producing strong/damaging wind gusts -- aided by the
   aforementioned dry air suggesting of evaporatively enhanced
   downdrafts.

   ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   41210258 41610170 42150025 42119857 40719827 38879993
               38600173 40120231 41210258