Mesoscale Discussion 1704
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559...

   Valid 242231Z - 250000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 559, primarily for
   severe wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow.

   DISCUSSION...The severe thunderstorm threat continues for WW 559
   across southern Arizona, where daytime heating has resulted in
   surface temperatures rising into the 110s F. With surface dewpoints
   in the lower-to-mid 60s F, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg across
   southwest portions of the watch area will continue to support
   thunderstorm development in the short term. Proximity sounding
   profiles show deeply mixed boundary layers with large saturation
   deficits, and very-weak to weak deep layer shear, supporting the
   threat for severe wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow. 

   The greatest short-term threat for severe wind gusts is currently
   confined to southern portions of the watch, where buoyancy is
   maximized and thunderstorms are ongoing. This threat will continue
   as storms move southwest towards the Mexican border, but should
   diminish after dark.

   ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31611090 31551137 31651183 31741218 31871242 32031256
               32371270 32721267 32991265 33161258 33511242 33761202
               34021154 34381124 34481113 34501099 34431075 34261064
               33851026 33621006 33020995 32911000 32350993 31921005
               31731038 31611090