ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231601

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1001 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

   Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

   An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of far West
   Texas and central to southern New Mexico. Morning surface
   observations show very dry conditions in place (dewpoints in the
   single digits to low teens) with a very dry residual mixed layer
   above a shallow nocturnal inversion sampled in the 12z EPZ sounding.
   Winds increasing to around 15 mph should coincide with RH minimums
   in the low to mid teens per recent ensemble guidance, which has
   trended towards higher probabilities of sustained elevated fire
   weather conditions over a region with slowly increasing ERCs (which
   currently sit at around the 80-90th percentile). Forecast concerns
   regarding portions of WY and NE remain on track as outlined in the
   previous discussion below.

   ..Moore.. 02/23/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the
   Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with
   winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%.
   Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle,
   winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below
   20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions
   suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread,
   especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of
   Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of
   supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at
   this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)