ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171657

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...

   The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments
   were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular,
   the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over
   northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface
   observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over
   these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry
   fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For
   additional details, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Central Plains...
   A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to
   the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina
   coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will
   result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter
   pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large
   area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the
   central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater
   fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern
   Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota
   and western Iowa.  There is significant uncertainty regarding the
   depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area.
   However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry
   fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum
   relative humidities likely in the 20s.

   ...Northern Central Valley in California...
   A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow
   is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough.
   This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds
   amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central
   Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by
   this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to
   locally critical conditions are expected.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)