Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sat Sep 7 16:31:03 UTC 2024 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sat Sep 7 16:31:03 UTC 2024 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071625
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
Based on current observations and recent guidance, modest
modifications were made to the dry thunderstorm area in the
Northwest. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous
discussion below for more details.
..Wendt.. 09/07/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken
under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and
tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture,
thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and
southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop
hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low
precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than
20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is
highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more
isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern
Sierra and portions of southern CA.
...Sierra and northwest Great Basin...
To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should
gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great
Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely
to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels
and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible,
elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...