Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sat Sep 7 16:31:03 UTC 2024 (
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 071625 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Based on current observations and recent guidance, modest modifications were made to the dry thunderstorm area in the Northwest. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...