SPC AC 260557

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ALSO FOR PART OF THE
   MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across
   parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region, and also
   across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will
   move eastward into the Southwest later today, while another midlevel
   cyclone and related shortwave trough move southeastward from the
   Great Lakes into the Northeast. A surface cyclone attendant to the
   Northeast system will move eastward across New England, as a
   trailing cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. 

   ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
   Extensive convection is expected overnight into the early part of
   the forecast period this morning, from the TX Panhandle/South Plains
   vicinity into southwest OK. Evolution of this convection and related
   outflow remains uncertain, though the majority of guidance suggests
   that an MCV will develop from this preceding convection and move
   eastward across OK through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will
   move southward across OK during the morning, before stalling and
   beginning to move northward as a warm front later in the period. 

   Storm intensification and/or redevelopment will be possible in the
   vicinity of the front during the afternoon, potentially aided by the
   eastward-moving MCV. Near/south of the front, relatively rich
   low-level moisture may support moderate destabilization by
   afternoon. Generally veering wind profiles are expected from parts
   of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex, though the strength of
   low/midlevel flow and size/length of hodographs will depend on the
   vigor of any MCV that moves across the region. An organized severe
   threat with some threat for all severe hazards could develop if a
   well-defined MCV favorably interacts with returning low-level
   moisture near the front. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
   eastward in response to this potential scenario. 

   Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered diurnal storm
   development will be possible near the remnant outflow boundary
   somewhere across west/southwest TX, and also within the post-frontal
   regime closer to the higher terrain of NM/CO. Coverage of storms
   across these areas remains uncertain in the absence of stronger
   large-scale ascent, but isolated supercell development will again be
   possible, with at least a localized threat of large hail,
   strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Greater probabilities
   may be needed if confidence increases in locally greater supercell
   coverage across part of this region. 

   ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
   Weak to moderate destabilization will be possible this afternoon
   across the Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, and at least widely
   scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the
   advancing cold front. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and
   deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid/upper-level
   shortwave trough could support a few stronger cells/clusters during
   the afternoon and evening. The magnitude of diurnal heating and
   destabilization remains somewhat uncertain, but locally damaging
   wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest
   storms.

   ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/26/2025

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