SPC AC 260600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR
   NORTHERN KANSAS....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
   and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
   are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
   evening/night.

   ...Discussion...
   A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the
   Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level
   trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this
   occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High
   Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer
   low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens
   across the High Plains. 

   This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the
   Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east
   of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong
   instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant
   inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser
   inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp
   dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development
   along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable
   environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather
   hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but
   coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. 

   Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities
   increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a
   few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and
   perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat
   for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively
   small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies
   after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing
   low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm
   longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as
   forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open
   warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly
   exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2
   percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a
   considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms
   capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening
   and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as
   isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening
   low-level jet.

   ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025

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