SPC AC 050531

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this
   afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky.

   ...Tennessee/Kentucky...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central
   U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through
   the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually
   strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front
   will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and
   into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
   expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near
   the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast
   to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
   approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in
   the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to
   abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be
   strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit
   region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this
   evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to
   02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have
   MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot
   range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This
   environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If
   surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front,
   a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible.
   However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast
   soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative
   factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized
   and marginal.

   ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025

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