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Mesoscale Discussion 405 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025
Areas affected...Western/central Kentucky and far southern Indiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 120...
Valid 050435Z - 050630Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind/tornado potential will continue, at least on
isolated basis, mainly across western Kentucky into the overnight,
and possibly east-northeastward into parts of central Kentucky/far
southern Indiana. Tornado Watch 120 continues until 4am CDT/09z, and
downstream convective trends will continue to be monitored, although
the need for an additional Watch is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Line Echo Wave Pattern (LEWP) evolution continues to
occur with multiple bowing segments across western Kentucky into
southwest Indiana, including one of the bow echoes preferentially
favoring and riding along prior outflow east of the Paducah area as
of 1130pm CDT. Near the terminus of the strong regional low-level
jet, low-level shear is robust within this corridor with 0-1km SRH
on the order of 250-400 m2/s2. Damaging wind along with some tornado
potential will continue especially across western Kentucky over the
next couple of hours. Overall storm intensity should gradually
diminish overnight as storms progress eastward, but at least a
lower-end damaging wind/tornado risk could breach the current
Tornado Watch, and convective trends will continue to be monitored.
..Guyer.. 04/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36428807 36528886 37008909 38008752 38368602 37918580
37418594 37018622 36658692 36428807
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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