Mesoscale Discussion 0170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Areas affected...parts of far eastern Kansas and northeastern
   Oklahoma through northwestern Arkansas...western and central
   Missouri and southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 141801Z - 142030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A rapidly developing squall line may initiate near of just
   west of the western Missouri state border vicinity as early as 3-4
   PM CDT.  This will probably pose increasing potential for producing
   very strong, damaging surface gusts and some severe hail while
   rapidly developing northeastward through early evening.  Potential
   for large hail and a few tornadoes may begin to increase prior to
   sunset, particularly across parts of south central through
   southwestern Missouri into northwestern and north central Arkansas. 
   One or more severe weather watches will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of the initial, elevated convective
   development, boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing in a narrow
   corridor across eastern Oklahoma through eastern Kansas, within the
   evolving warm sector of the deep, occluding cyclone now centered
   over northwestern Kansas.  This is being supported by still rather
   modest low-level moisture return characterized by upper 40s to near
   50F surface dew points along an ill-defined dryline, to the north of
   the I-44 corridor.  Still, beneath steep lapse rates associated with
   warm elevated mixed-layer air, insolation is forecast to contribute
   to increasing mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg within the
   next couple hours, with continued cooling further aloft.

   As an intense cyclonic mid/upper-level jet streak (including a core
   in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb) continues nosing across the south
   central Great Plains toward the lower Missouri Valley through early
   this evening, associated forcing for ascent coupled with the
   destabilization appears likely to support the initiation and
   intensification of thunderstorm activity.  It appears that this may 
   commence near the western Missouri/Kansas and Oklahoma state border
   vicinity, as the dryline is overtaken by the stronger near-surface
   through mid-tropospheric cooling.  

   Any initially discrete thunderstorm development seems likely to be
   short-lived, with a rapid upscale growing line expected, probably by
   20-22Z, if not perhaps a bit earlier.  Given the initially modestly
   deep and well-mixed boundary layer, and the strength of the
   lower/mid-tropospheric flow (including 50-60 kts south to
   south-southwesterly in the lowest 3-6 km AGL), the development of
   strong, damaging surface gusts appears to the most certain potential
   severe hazard.  

   The extent of the hail and tornado threat remains a bit more
   unclear.  However, guidance is suggestive that at least a bit more
   substantive low-level moisture return ahead of the developing line,
   across northwestern Arkansas into southwest and south-central
   Missouri, might support increasing potential associated with these
   hazards prior to 15/00Z.

   ..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...
   TOP...

   LAT...LON   40859479 40949226 37709199 35589331 35219431 38219502
               39279545 40079546 40859479