Mesoscale Discussion 0121
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK
   and western north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021914Z - 022145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon, with a
   threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or
   two.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is underway across parts of the TX
   South Plains and southeast TX Panhandle, in the wake of elevated
   convection that is moving into southwest OK and western north TX.
   Differential heating is sharpening a low-level baroclinic zone
   extending east-southeast of a deep-layer cyclone moving out of
   east-central New Mexico. Convective initiation is underway near the
   dryline east/southeast of Lubbock, and additional thunderstorm
   development is expected this afternoon as strong ascent overspreads
   the region. 

   Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but mid/upper 40s F
   dewpoints (locally higher) will be sufficient to support MLCAPE
   increasing to near 500 J/kg with continued heating and cold
   temperatures aloft. Deep-layer shear is more than sufficient for
   organized convection, with the relatively limited buoyancy providing
   the primary uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe threat
   this afternoon. However, given the strong forcing, an arc of
   convection with one or more small embedded supercells may develop
   with time this afternoon and move northeastward, posing a risk of
   hail and localized strong to severe gusts. 

   Some threat for a tornado may also evolve with time, especially with
   any supercells in the vicinity of the warm-frontal zone, where
   locally higher dewpoints (in the low 50s F) and a relatively
   favorable overlap of low-level instability and vorticity will
   reside. While the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain, watch
   issuance is possible if development of multiple severe storms
   appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 03/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   32870047 33140052 33540062 33930086 34400142 34460141
               35030124 35160074 35159978 34799910 33649894 33299957
               33129995 32870047