Mesoscale Discussion 2153
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0823 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern NM

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...

   Valid 210123Z - 210330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail should persist for the next few
   hours across east-central to northeast New Mexico, with a brief
   tornado also possible in east-central New Mexico.

   DISCUSSION...Two primary corridors of thunderstorms are ongoing; one
   east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the Raton Mesa, and the
   other south of the I-40 corridor in east-central NM. The northern
   storms should pose a continued threat of small to marginally severe
   hail of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, based on prior MRMS MESH signatures and
   presence of weak surface-based buoyancy plume. The discrete cells
   farther south have recently consolidated to two storms and these may
   gradually intensify over the next hour or so within a favorable
   supercell wind profile. FDX VWP data confirms an enlarged 0-1 km
   hodograph, beneath by strong southwesterly speed shear above 3 km.
   This could result in a sustained supercell being capable of a brief
   tornado, along with large hail from quarter to golf ball size
   through about 03-04Z. Thereafter, additional storms will probably
   increase in between the two separate regimes as low-level warm
   theta-e advection becomes maximized and a cluster mode dominates,
   while the boundary layer further cools.

   ..Grams.. 10/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37450359 37370295 34890284 34230293 33880371 33830426
               33870470 34250495 35620520 36260486 36990419 37450359