Mesoscale Discussion 2100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

   Areas affected...portions of western and Middle Tennessee...part of
   western and central Kentucky...southeastern Indiana...and
   southwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241653Z - 241900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective coverage/intensity should continue to ramp up
   through early afternoon, with severe threat to gradually increase. 
   WW issuance may be required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows broken cloud cover
   across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, in the wake of earlier
   convection.  This has allowed modest destabilization to commence
   ahead of the advancing cold front, with an axis of 1500 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE now extending from southern Indiana
   south-southwestward across parts of western and Middle Tennessee. 
   In response to the destabilizing environment, and ascent in the
   vicinity of the front, a gradual convective increase is noted on
   radar and visible satellite loops, which should continue over the
   next couple of hours as modest/continued heating/destabilization
   occur.

   On the southeastern fringe of the advancing trough (across the Ohio
   and Tennessee Valley areas), moderately strong southwesterly flow
   aloft is indicated, which will aid in storm intensification
   resulting in eventually multicell and potentially isolated supercell
   storms.  As this occurs, risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and
   some hail, will increase with stronger storms/storm clusters.  Given
   the evolving severe-weather potential, a severe thunderstorm watch
   may be needed in the next hour or so.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   39698439 39118392 38178454 36088607 35228713 35078895
               35678894 36438855 37718705 38608639 39528553 39698439