Mesoscale Discussion 2047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern WY...northwestern
   CO...northeastern UT...and far western NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041806Z - 042000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon across southern WY, northern CO, and portions of
   northeastern UT and far western NE. The strongest storms may pose a
   threat for local severe wind gusts and small hail.

   DISCUSSION...Deeper updraft development is underway across the
   region, predominantly in advance of a mid-level wave progressing
   eastward through the region. Associated upper-level ventilation is
   supporting storm maturation across southeastern WY. Convective
   development is also occurring in northeastern UT, aided by enhanced
   westerlies aloft and diurnal heating amidst the Uinta Mountains.
   Continued updraft intensification is expected through the afternoon
   as the wave propagates eastward through the area and diurnal heating
   continues to ramp up.

   Surface conditions are relatively cool across the area in the wake
   of a cold frontal passage. As such, MLCAPE values are relatively low
   (around 250-500 J/kg) and some convective inhibition remains.
   However, diurnal heating will support continued updraft development
   across the area. Updrafts will be relatively high-based, but steep
   mid-level lapse rates -- owing to synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the
   mid-level wave -- could yield MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg in some
   areas. Lengthening, relatively straight hodographs, characterized by
   bulk shear around 30-40 kts, could support a few more persistent,
   supercellular structures. Some severe wind gusts and small hail will
   be the primary threat with these storms through the afternoon. The
   threat is expected to remain rather localized in nature, and watch
   issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Flournoy/Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   40041022 40911053 42051009 43190817 43250573 42610421
               41640359 40310366 39440567 39450839 40041022