Mesoscale Discussion 1985
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

   Areas affected...parts of northeastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242100Z - 242330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may begin to initiate, with the
   evolution of an isolated supercell possible, by 4-5 PM MDT.  This
   may pose a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and
   perhaps some potential for a brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence appears to be locally
   strengthening within weak surface troughing near the Wolf Point
   vicinity, where surface dew points remain in the lower/mid 60s F, as
   temperatures warm into the 90s F.  Inhibition is gradually eroding
   with continuing insolation, and this may be aided by weak mid-level
   cooling through late afternoon, downstream of a mid-level
   perturbation progressing across and northeast of the Canadian
   Rockies.

   Initial attempts at deepening convective development appear slowly
   underway, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles already
   characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE
   in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Beneath 35-60+ kt south-southwesterly flow
   in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is already strong and
   conditionally supportive of supercells.

   Although the strength of mid/upper forcing for ascent remains a bit
   unclear, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh and Rapid Refresh, in
   particular, suggest that at least isolated thunderstorms may
   initiate as early as 22-23Z.  Once this occurs, intensification may
   be fairly rapid, with storms becoming capable of producing large
   hail, locally damaging gusts gusts, and perhaps some risk for a
   brief tornado, despite generally small/linear low-level hodographs.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GGW...

   LAT...LON   49550459 48250422 47870592 48790686 49660673 49550459