Mesoscale Discussion 1921
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

   Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161907Z - 162100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional threat of wind and hail will be possible
   downstream of WW627 as long-lived supercell and potential for
   additional convection develops continues east and southeast.

   DISCUSSION...An elevated long-lived supercell continues to track
   east along trailing outflow in south-central Kansas south of
   Wichita. Visible satellite has shown attempts at new cell
   development on the southern flank of outflow as it sags southward
   towards northern Oklahoma. Modified soundings would suggest that the
   downstream environment may only be weakly capped, as temperatures
   have warmed into the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Kansas
   and northern Oklahoma. A conditional threat of large hail and
   damaging wind may extend downstream with further warming and
   weakening of capping occurs and supercells can become surface based,
   given MLCAPE around 1000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts.
   This area is being monitored for a downstream watch should
   intensification occur. A local extension of WW627 may be needed in
   south-central Kansas.

   ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36809765 36419729 36219684 36099647 36049597 36069558
               36309499 36599467 36949495 37299541 37819620 37889696
               37789767 37219781 36809765