Mesoscale Discussion 1903
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas and southeastern
   Nebraska...and into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622...

   Valid 150009Z - 150145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms -- including a persistent supercell --
   are now ongoing across portions of WW 622 near the northeast
   Kansas/southeast Nebraska border.  Large hail remains the primary
   threat, though a damaging outflow gust and/or brief tornado are also
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop across the Mid-MO Valley area shows
   several vigorous updrafts, a couple of which have exhibited
   transient rotational signatures per area WSR-88D data.  The most
   organized/long-lived cell is moving northeastward across Gage
   County, though this storm too now appears to be weakening.  Overall,
   the environment supports strong/rotating storms; the combination of
   a moist (70s dewpoints) and very unstable (3000-plus J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE) environment, combined with the presence of a
   northwest-to-southeast remnant outflow providing focused low-level
   ascent, suggests additional strong/severe storm development over the
   next couple of hours.  In addition, recent CAM output continues to
   hint at potential for storm development near/ahead of a surface cold
   front slowly advancing across central Nebraska, which would be
   expected to move into/across northwestern portions of WW 622 later
   this evening.  Given a similarly sheared/unstable environment ahead
   of the front, potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts would
   likely accompany these storms, presuming development as anticipated.

   ..Goss.. 08/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38889796 39529703 40229695 40769638 40979568 40249512
               39359533 38699641 38639754 38889796