Mesoscale Discussion 1895
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

   Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and
   Northeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 132231Z - 132330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across portions
   of eastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas and southwestern
   Nebraska, as convection is expected to organize into a MCS capable
   of damaging gusts later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms have developed over
   the High Plains of Colorado this afternoon, and are expected to
   continue to move eastward into a more favorable environment for
   convective organization. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts (with a
   substantial warm-frontal boundary-parallel component of the
   vectors), along with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, will support further
   organization of these clusters into a linear convective system
   capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for damaging
   winds will be with any bowing segments that develop as convection
   matures later this evening. Large hail will be possible,
   particularly in the transition from multicell/supercell clusters
   into a linear system, though mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5 C/km
   could potentially be a limiting factor. Some tornado potential
   exists in the early evening transition period, when the nocturnal
   low-level jet will produce enlarged/curved hodoraphs with lots of
   streamwise vorticity in the lowest levels. However, the largely
   boundary-parallel shear vectors, along with colliding thunderstorm
   outflows, will limit any long-lived tornado potential.

   ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41540080 41180009 40959995 40310004 39630077 39110170
               39020216 39120313 39200397 39430423 39810432 40150436
               40520433 40780430 41120419 41450382 41510321 41580282
               41590196 41540080