Mesoscale Discussion 1802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

   Areas affected...southern Virginia...much of North Carolina and into
   far northern South Carolina.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031739Z - 031915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development should commence early
   this afternoon off the higher terrain. A few stronger clusters may
   emerge with a risk for damaging gusts. A WW is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed
   deepening cumulus towers and initial thunderstorm development was
   ongoing over parts of the Carolinas and southwestern VA. Aided by
   ascent from a broad eastern US trough, strong diurnal heating atop a
   very humid air mass (dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F) will
   remove lingering inhibition over the next couple of hours. Scattered
   to widespread thunderstorms are likely by mid afternoon. Despite
   only modest mid-level lapse rates, the robust heating will support
   moderate to strong buoyancy with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE favorable
   for strong updrafts. Somewhat enhanced mid-level flow ahead of the
   trough may also support storm organization into multi-cell clusters,
   with effective shear values around 25 kt.

   AS storms gradually increase in coverage and intensity, a few more
   organized clusters may evolve as individual cold pools begin to
   consolidate. With the marginal shear values for storm organization,
   a few of these clusters may have greater longevity and more intense
   cores. With very high PWATS near 2 inches and the large buoyancy,
   damaging downdraft winds are the most likely threat. Confidence in
   storm coverage appears greatest over parts of southern VA into
   central NC. With the risk for damaging winds likely to increase over
   the next couple of hours, a WW is being considered.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35808108 37267987 38097872 38077760 37677653 36997655
               35977709 35257773 34527863 34387962 34338067 34428116
               35098158 35808108