Mesoscale Discussion 1783
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

   Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010719Z - 010845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditional potential exists for an increase in strong to
   severe gusts from 50-65 mph across a part of the Mid-Mississippi
   Valley into central Illinois. If realized, the threat may only last
   for a couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...An uptick in deep convection, largely displaced west of
   a leading outflow boundary, occurred about 30 minutes ago across a
   part of northeast MO, seemingly associated with a subtle MCV moving
   east. A gust of 48 mph was recently measured at the Columbia, MO
   ASOS where the trailing portion of outflow from this cluster
   overtook the lead outflow from a separate cluster of deep
   convection, now over west-central IL. As this northeast MO cluster
   merges into the leading cluster in west-central IL, an increase in
   strong to severe gusts may occur farther south in central IL. If
   this occurs, this may be relatively short-lived, around a couple
   hours, owing to southwesterly low-level flow roughly paralleling the
   large-scale convective outflow and lack of stronger forcing for
   ascent heading into sunrise.

   ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39649121 39829099 39949049 40328969 40208936 39998890
               39688874 39318871 38998881 38838920 38589004 38619084
               38819164 39649121