Mesoscale Discussion 1700
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

   Areas affected...Central Illinois...Central Indiana...and
   West-Central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241806Z - 242000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated threat for severe wind/hail with the strongest
   cells, watch unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few remnant convective clusters
   moving southeast in concert with an east-west oriented cold front
   across the region. Ahead of this activity, surface heating has led
   to destabilization within the warm sector, with MLCAPE approaching
   1500 J/kg. Satellite/radar shows additional convective cells
   beginning to develop, mostly along the front. This activity is
   expected to continue developing over the next few hours with some
   expansion in coverage. Higher values effective bulk shear generally
   remain displaced to the north behind the front, and therefore given
   the proximate weak shear environment, storms are anticipated to
   remain generally disorganized and watch issuance appears unlikely.
   That said, relatively strong low-level lapse rates (near 8.5 C/km)
   may promote a few damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells,
   along with some potential for severe hail.

   ..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40978930 40928826 40638660 40768497 40718322 40318308
               39958386 39478490 39448495 39428543 39588878 40019016
               40709031 40978930