Mesoscale Discussion 1683
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

   Areas affected...Central/Southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 192141Z - 192245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...New Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears warranted for
   portions of the central/southern High Plains.

   DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is evident within water-vapor
   imagery digging south-southeast across the central Plains. Scattered
   convection now reflects the leading edge of this feature, with
   thunderstorms gradually increasing across the central portions of
   ww555 from northwestern KS into eastern CO. This activity should
   propagate south along the primary corridor of instability (MLCAPE on
   the order of 2000 J/kg) toward the OK Panhandle later this evening.
   While LLJ is not forecast to be that strong, 25kt southerly jet
   should aid in the longevity of this activity as it spreads south
   across the High Plains. Damaging winds are the main risk, though
   some hail is possible.

   ..Darrow/Gleason.. 07/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38220286 38379925 37419877 36340001 36460223 38220286